The Outlines of a Solution in Lebanon?

As the invasion of Gaza continues, several countries are trying to stabilize Israel’s northern border.

Israel wants to create deserts all around and call it peace. Since October 7, something has become evident to its leadership, beyond the shortcomings of Israeli security, namely that the Zionist enterprise is at an impasse. Israeli politicians for decades have tried to erase the Palestinian presence in their midst, and yet the Palestinians remain. Some 5 million live between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, in addition to the 2 million Arabs in Israel. The Israelis have quietly realized that without a major ethnic cleansing project, the higher Palestinian birth rate will slowly turn against them, as Israel’s Jewish population is around 7 million.

However, such fears have not come in isolation. For the Israelis, the emerging Palestinian demographic majority in Israel and the occupied territories is all the more dangerous because it is supported by well-armed militia groups bordering Israel, above all Hezbollah, themselves backed by Iran, a regional power. That is why some Israeli politicians today would like to extend the Gaza war to Lebanon, on the assumption that as the United States is covering for Israel in Gaza, it may provide an opening for a major military operation in the north.

There is certainly a fear among some U.S. officials that Israel intends to use the weaponry it has received from Washington in a war against Hezbollah. However, the idea that the Americans would green-light such a war seems, for now, unlikely, not least because the chances are high that it would expand into a broader regional conflagration that draws in the United States and Iran. From the start of the Gaza war, the Biden administration and Iran have engaged in back-channel talks, which has kept the situation in Lebanon in unstable stability, with Hezbollah and Israel attacking each other, albeit within what are seen as the red lines of engagement.

However, are the Israelis really reassuring on that front? It’s entirely possible that they will seek to initiate a conflict in Lebanon and push the Biden administration into making a hard choice of either helping them, or paying the political price for failing to do so. That would be extremely risky, of course, not least because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seen by some in Washington as someone who has an interest in widening the conflict in the region to save his political skin.

Full article at Diwan, which you can read by clicking here.